Statistically, there aren’t 30.000 undocumented immigrants that commit violent crimes in the US in one year

There are around 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US. According to Cato Institute analyses (2018, Alex Nowrasteh), 0.04% of undocumented immigrants end up convicted of violent crimes each year.

This analysis is from state level data (Texas) which of course isn’t representative of the entire US population but Texas has one of the largest populations of undocumented immigrants alongside California so the sample size is considerably large.

Which means the percentage of 0.04% shouldn’t be too far from the population mean, especially considering numerous other studies that conclude low crime rates for immigrants in the US.

Some examples of the “numerous studies”: - The Integration of Immigrants into American Society by National Academies of Science (2015) - The Criminalization of Immigration in the United States by the American Immigration Council (2015) - Does undocumented immigration increase violent crime? By Light, M.T, & Miller, T (2018) - An examination of first and second generation immigrant offending trajectories by Bersani, B.E. (2014)

So statistically, assuming some deviation from the population mean, around 0.03% - 0.06% of undocumented immigrants commit violent crimes.

Which makes between 3300 to 6600 people a year.

That’s it. That’s the post. Just wanted to share that.